Borussia Dortmund have gone five games unbeaten just once this season. It came right at the start of the season and included a 4-1 win against Regionalliga Nord’s 1. FC Phönix Lübeck. Since then, BVB have failed to string together five games without a loss. But they can do it again if they get a result against Augsburg at the weekend. It may not seem like much, but it would demonstrate the steady progress BVB have made since Niko Kovač replaced Nuri Şahin.
Dortmund were uninspired in their 1-1 draw against Lille on Tuesday, but they will host Augsburg on Saturday and have the opportunity to take another positive step against a team that is just three points behind them in 11th place.
Augsburg have spent almost 15 years in the Bundesliga, usually hovering just above the relegation zone, but in recent seasons they’ve started to establish themselves as a midtable side. This season they have made themselves very difficult to beat, boasting the sixth best defense in the league. They are pretty limited offensively, but a team built on such strong defensive foundations is always a threat to claim at least a point. Augsburg are unbeaten in their last eight in the Bundesliga, and while they have only won once in their last five games, it was a stretch that saw them face St. Pauli (A), Mainz (A), RB Leipzig (H), Borussia Mönchengladbach (A), and Freiburg (H). Augsburg are a tough side to beat.
Player to Watch: Alexis Claude-Maurice
Augsburg’s defense is their crown jewel, but they have few standout players at the back. Chrislain Matsima is a young center back with some potential, but their defensive solidity is very much a team effort. Instead, I want to highlight Augsburg’s most potent offensive weapon: Alexis Claude-Maurice.
Claude-Maurice joined Augsburg from Nice this summer, and he has hit the ground running. He tends to line up on the left of a two that plays just behind Samuel Essende up top, and his profile is a little wonky as a result. Still, he’s industrious out of possession, and has been very productive in the final third this season.
Photo by Joris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images
Claude-Maurice is Augsburg’s top goalscorer this season with nine goals, averaging 0.67 npG+A/90. He appears to be running very hot, given that his npxG+xAG/90 is 0.28, but this is still among Augsburg’s best. He recently scored all three goals in Augsburg’s 3-0 win against Gladbach. If Augsburg are going to trouble Dortmund, expect Claude-Maurice to be central to their success.
Predicted Starting XI
BVB have confirmed that Daniel Svensson suffered a medial collateral ligament (MCL) injury towards the end of the Lille game earlier in the week. This will put him out of action until at least the international break, so Ramy Bensebaini will replace Svensson in the starting lineup. Otherwise, I think the only other changes we might see will be Jamie Gittens and Julian Brandt, who could be swapped out for Maximilian Beier and Gio Reyna.
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I’ve gone for Beier to come in for Gittens, with Brandt holding onto his starting spot. Gittens was solid enough in the first half against Lille, but looked a little tired in the second half, and Beier has been playing really well so I think it’s an easier choice to bring him back into the lineup. Neither of Brandt or Reyna have impressed recently, so I suspect Kovač will give Brandt another chance to prove he deserves to be starting.
If both Brandt and Reyna continue to struggle (and potentially even if they improve), expect Carney Chukwuemeka to become a starter very soon. It’s clear BVB are being cautious with the young English midfielder, but he has impressed whenever he has been on the pitch, and I think it’s likely Chukwuemeka is already the best 8 and/or 10 at the club. Kovač has confirmed he will be available for Saturday, but it is probably too soon to chuck him in from the start.
Score Prediction
Augsburg are tough to beat, but I think Dortmund will have just enough quality to get the job done. I think the game will be pretty slow, but BVB will wear Augsburg down and eventually break through in the second half. I’m going for a 1-0 Dortmund victory. What is your prediction?
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